Nordin Yahaya

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia - UTM, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Faculty Member

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Analytic Network Process (ANP) to Risk Assessment of Gas Refinery EPC Projects in Iran

by Hadi Sarvari, Norhazilan Md Noor, and Nordin Yahaya

ABSTRACT Risk assessment is the most significant factors in risk management. Earlier researches h... more ABSTRACT Risk assessment is the most significant factors in risk management. Earlier researches have shown that risk assessment is essential to achieve success in Engineering, Procurement and Construction projects(EPC). The occurrence of different risk can worsen the effects of each other such as the impact of political risks on economic risks. Although appointed methods such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Synthetic, Interrelated Tree and Fuzzy AHP methods are commonly used in the industry sectors, yet these approaches seem powerless for evaluating the interactions and feedback between the aforementioned risks. As a result, an accurate assessment of the severity of risks cannot be determined. This study aims to assess the risks in EPC projects using Analytic Network Process (ANP) method. ANP approach is preferable in order to identify the problems of interdependence and feedback between various risk ranking alternatives. The method utilizes data that are collected through literature review, interview and a questionnaire distributed to EPC project experts. In this paper, the effects of risks on EPC project objectives such as cost, quality and time and probabilities of occurrence are assessed. Risks in EPC projects are divided into six groups: design risks, market risk, political risk, environmental risk, construction risk and political risk. The results have shown that political risks, and design risks are the most significant group of risks in EPC projects as compared to other group of risk. As a conclusion, ANP is found suitable in analyzing the feedback and interdependence between risks.

Prioritization of Reputation Loss Factor Subject to Pipeline Explosion

Asian Journal of Scientific Research

The impact of onshore oil and gas pipeline accident i.e., explosion varies depending on the pipel... more The impact of onshore oil and gas pipeline accident i.e., explosion varies depending on the pipeline location, transported product, proximity of residential areas and etc. Pipeline owner's reputation is threatened once an accident takes place, which influences stakeholders' perceptions consequently. This study focuses on prioritizing the importance of the reputation loss factors according to the experts' judgments. Twenty two reputation loss factors were identified from 10 major pipeline explosion post-accident case studies. Nine experts were interviewed to rate importance level of the reputation loss factors using 10-point Likert scale rating method. The significance difference was obtained by the implementation of statistical analysis. Relative Importance Index (RII) was used to identify the importance level of the factor and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method for prioritization process with the aid of Super Decisions software. Results show that all reputation l...

format_quoteRelative Importance Index revealed scores between 4 and 10 for reputation loss factors, categorizing them from low to crucial importance.format_quote

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